How Much Below Asking Upper Mission Homes Actually Sell For
Braden Koop Personal Real Estate Corporation · Koop Homes Group · REALTOR® · RE/MAX Kelowna
Upper Mission detached homes sold at an average of 96.5% of their asking price through the first half of 2026. On a $1.5 million list price, that is roughly $52,500 of negotiating room. And the more useful fact behind it: not one month since January 2023 — 42 straight months — has averaged at or above asking.
That is the answer most buyers are actually looking for when they ask whether it is a buyer’s market. “Balanced” is a label. This is a number, and it has a five-year record behind it.
The five-year record
Here is every year since 2021, for single-family detached homes in Upper Mission. Sold-to-list is the median month; months of inventory is the median month; the middle column counts how many months in that year averaged at or above the asking price.
| Year | Sold-to-list | Months at or above ask | Months of inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 100.0% | 10 of 12 | 2 |
| 2022 | 98.6% | 3 of 12 | 3 |
| 2023 | 97.5% | 0 of 12 | 6 |
| 2024 | 96.6% | 0 of 12 | 9 |
| 2025 | 97.4% | 0 of 12 | 7 |
| 2026 (Jan–Jun) | 96.6% | 0 of 6 | 8 |
The shape is clear enough. In 2021, ten of twelve months averaged at or above asking and there were two months of supply on the shelf — that is a market where the buyer has no move to make. By 2024 the supply had roughly quadrupled and the at-or-above-ask months had gone to zero, where they have stayed.
One number I have left out. September 2024 shows 123 months of inventory in the raw data. That is an artifact, not a market event — months of inventory divides active supply by that month’s sales, and a near-zero-sales month makes the result explode. I have used the median month of each year rather than the average so a single distorted month does not carry the story.
What 96.5% means in dollars
Ratios are easy to nod along to and hard to act on, so here is the translation at three price points common in Upper Mission, using the 2026 year-to-date figure.
| Asking price | Typical sold price | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| $1,200,000 | $1,158,000 | $42,000 |
| $1,500,000 | $1,447,500 | $52,500 |
| $2,000,000 | $1,930,000 | $70,000 |
One qualifier that matters more than most buyers realize: this ratio measures the sold price against the most recent list price, not the original one. A home that was listed at $1.65M, sat, cut to $1.5M and then sold at 96.5% of that has fallen a good deal further from where it started. The discount off the first asking price is a separate and usually larger number.
Inventory tripled. The discount did not.
This is the part I would want to know if I were buying, and it cuts against the easy story. Supply in Upper Mission has gone from two months to eight. If leverage worked in a straight line, the discount should have widened with it.
It has not. Sold-to-list has sat in a narrow 96–98% band every single year since 2023, while inventory moved all over the place. What buyers gained was not a bigger discount — it was time, and the ability to make an offer conditional on an inspection without losing the house. Sellers, for their part, did not capitulate; they held within a few points of asking and waited longer.
So the practical read is this: an offer at roughly 3–4% under a well-priced list is in the normal range and gets taken seriously. An offer at 15% under is not a negotiation in this market, it is a pass. Four years of data say the seller will wait you out.
Spring 2026 tightened, quietly
Within this year the trend has not been in the buyer’s favour. Upper Mission opened 2026 with eleven and ten months of inventory in January and February, then fell to four months in May — the tightest single month since 2022 — before easing back to six in June.
Four months of supply is not a balanced market. It is a mildly seller-favouring one. Whether that holds through the back half of the year is genuinely unknown, and I would not tell you otherwise, but the direction over the spring was toward less buyer leverage rather than more. If you have been waiting for the market to hand you a better entry point, the first half of 2026 did not deliver one.
What I would do with this
If you are buying: budget the realistic 3–4% rather than a fantasy 10%, and spend your leverage on terms instead of price — a longer subject period, a possession date that suits you, an inspection you are not rushed through. Those cost a seller little and are worth a lot to you. Then check the days-on-market on the specific home; a listing that has been up for ninety days is a different negotiation than one listed last week.
If you are selling: the 96.5% figure applies to homes priced sensibly at the outset. It does not rescue an overpriced listing — those show up in the data as the price cuts that reset the list price before the ratio is even measured. Get the first number right and the market treats you well within a few points.
The numbers behind this
All figures come from Interior REALTORS® Matrix, filtered to Residential, Single Family – Detached, Central Okanagan, Upper Mission sub-area, January 2021 through June 2026, pulled 29 July 2026. The sold-to-list series is calculated from 692 sold listings. These are aggregate market statistics and they move every month — if you are reading this well after the date above, the direction is more reliable than the decimal.
For current supply, you can see what is actually on the market on my current listings page, and the fuller picture sits on my Upper Mission homes for sale page. Broader Mission-area figures across these neighbourhoods are in the market report.
Want the number for a specific house?
Sold-to-list averages describe a market, not a property. If you are weighing an offer on a particular Upper Mission home — or wondering what yours would realistically sell for — I will run the comparables from board data and give you the figure straight.
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